Publications

The fact that Amazon was allowed to acquire hundreds of companies as it rose to become the fourth most valuable U.S. company in terms of market capitalization and a leader in three lines of business has been viewed by some as damning evidence of underenforcement by the United States antitrust authorities. In this article we ask the obvious question: If the 2023 Guidelines had been in place instead of prior guidelines, what effects would they have had on Amazon’s development? To provide an answer, we identify relevant changes in the guidelines and then select for review a subset of Amazon’s 280 acquisitions over the period 1998 to 2022. In our counterfactual, we analyze five horizontal acquisitions, four vertical acquisitions, and two sets of serial acquisitions. We find that the 2023 Guidelines would have broadened the bases for potential challenges and thereby would have increased the likelihood that Amazon would have faced greater resistance from antitrust authorities. The lack of safe harbors, the plasticity of individual Guidelines, and the optionality to challenge mergers under alternative theories would have exposed most of Amazon’s acquisitions to challenge. The lack of meaningful guidance about which individual transactions would have been challenged suggests that going forward enforcer discretion will play a yet larger role. Regarding Amazon’s serial acquisitions of nearly one hundred technology firms, we find that the 2023 Guidelines would have provided multiple rationales for intervention. Therein lies a weakness in the Guidelines and in antitrust policy: the lack of a framework for assessing both the anticompetitive and procompetitive effects of such acquisitions in high-tech industries.

Healthcare is one of the largest global industries, encompassing a wide range of occupations, organizational designs, and advanced technologies within different types of systems and forms of ownership (public, for-profit, non-profit). The complexity, range, scale, and importance of the work conducted in the healthcare sector render it an ideal context for scholars engaged in management and organizational research to develop novel, generalizable, and useful theories aligned with the mission of Administrative Science Quarterly.

We are thrilled to feature seven insightful and impactful papers that showcase healthcare as an important context to advance the study of organizations and management.

This context was long the purview of scholars in other disciplines writing solely for healthcare audiences, but management scholars recently have given increased attention to studying healthcare organizations and their management. We were ecstatic to discover that the publication rate of ASQ articles featuring research conducted in healthcare contexts has increased in the last decade relative to prior decades.

Global powers, like the United States and China, exert influence on other countries by threatening the suspension or alteration of financial and trade relationships. We show that the mechanisms that generate gains from integration and specialization, such as external economies of scale, also increase these countries’ power to exert economic influence because in equilibrium they make other relationships poor substitutes for those with a global hegemon. We study how smaller countries can insulate themselves from geoeconomic pressure from the great powers by pursuing anti-coercion policy. We show that while an individual country can make itself better off, uncoordinated attempts by multiple countries to limit their dependency on the hegemon lead to unwinding the global gains from integration and fragmenting the global financial and trade system. Countries resort to inefficient home alternatives the more so hegemons are expected to want to exert their influence in disruptive ways. An integrated liberal world order emerges as an equilibrium when the hegemon’s incentives are well aligned with the world economy, politically and economically. Generically, the world economy fragments along political and economic alignments. We study a leading application focusing on financial services and payment systems as both a tool of coercion by the hegemon and an industry with strong strategic complementarities at the global level.

Fundraising campaigns draw support from a wide pool of contributors. Some contributors are interested in private rewards offered in exchange for contributions (buyers), whereas others are publicly-minded and value success (donors). Buyers face a coordination problem because of the positive externalities of campaign success. A leadership donor who strategically times contributions can promote coordination by dynamically signaling his valuation. The ability to signal increases the probability of success and benefits all participants relative to the donor valuation being known. We validate our modeling assumptions and theoretical predictions using Kickstarter data.

Economics Job Market Rumors (EJMR) is an online forum and clearing house for infor-
mation about the academic job market for economists. It also includes content that is
abusive, defamatory, racist, misogynistic, or otherwise “toxic.” Almost all of this content
is created anonymously by contributors who receive a four-character username when post-
ing on EJMR. Using only publicly available data we show that the statistical properties of
the scheme by which these usernames were generated allows the IP addresses from which
most posts were made to be determined with high probability.1 We recover 47,630 distinct
IP addresses of EJMR posters and attribute them to 66.1% of the roughly 7 million posts
made over the past 12 years. We geolocate posts and describe aggregated cross-sectional
variation—particularly regarding toxic, misogynistic, and hate speech—across sub-forums,
geographies, institutions, and IP addresses. Our analysis suggests that content on EJMR
comes from all echelons of the economics profession, including, but not limited to, its elite
institutions.

An influential emerging literature documents strong correlations between carbon emissions and stock returns. We re-examine those data and conclude that these associations are driven by two factors. First, stock returns are correlated only with unscaled emissions estimated by the data vendor, but not with unscaled emissions actually disclosed by firms. Vendor-estimated emissions systematically differ from firm-disclosed emissions and are highly correlated with financial fundamentals, suggesting that prior findings primarily capture the association between such fundamentals and returns. Second, unscaled emissions, the variable typically used in academic literature, is correlated with stock returns but emissions intensity (emissions scaled by firm size), an equally important measure used in practice, is not. While unscaled emissions represent an important metric for society, we argue that, for individual firms, emissions intensity is an appropriate measurement choice to assess carbon performance. The associations between emissions and returns disappear after accounting for either of the issues above.

We present a new database of banking-crisis interventions from the Roman Empire
to the present, covering 1,946 interventions in 20 categories across 143 countries.
We demonstrate that crisis-intervention patterns are significantly related to income
and fiscal variables and to measures of the political system and currency regime.
GDP losses following crises are economically significant and are larger for
wealthier countries, with some evidence that these losses are mitigated by
democratic political systems and liberal currency regimes. Finally, intervention
frequencies reached an apex during the post-Bretton Woods era, continuing a
secular increase since at least the late 17th century.

A buyer procures a good owned by a group of sellers whose hetero- geneous cost of trade is private information. The buyer must either buy the whole good or nothing, and sellers share the transfer in pro- portion to their share of the good. We characterize the optimal mech- anism: trade occurs if and only if the buyer’s benefit of trade exceeds a weighted average of sellers’ virtual costs. These weights are endog- enous, with sellers who are ex ante less inclined to trade receiving higher weight. This mechanism always outperforms posted-price mechanisms. An extension characterizes the entire Pareto frontier.

Can information from a credible messenger shift behavior in an information-saturated environment? In a randomized controlled trial involving twenty-eight million individuals in West Bengal, we find that SMS-delivered video messages containing information about COVID-19 symptoms and health-preserving behaviors recorded by a credible messenger increased adherence to targeted and non- targeted preventive behaviors, measured by two objective measures (symptoms reported to a health worker, and phone usage at home), as well as self-reported behaviors. We find large spillovers onto non- targeted recipients. Credible light-touch messaging can play an important role in crisis response, even when similar information is widely available.

This book offers a radical thesis: Technological innovation often benefits elites while worsening conditions for workers, challenging the common view that technology always improves living standards. Through historical transitions like the Industrial Revolution, the authors illustrate how innovations have frequently led to worker exploitation. They argue that governance, rather than competition, determines whether technological advances benefit society. In the digital age, platforms exploit user data without fair compensation, causing harm through addictive services and poor regulation. The book calls for stronger regulations to protect consumers and ensure that innovation aligns with societal well-being, especially as artificial intelligence spreads.

I study the long-term effects of landing a first job at a large firm versus a small one using Spanish administrative data. Size could be a relevant employer attribute for inexperienced workers since large firms are associated with greater productivity, wages, and training. The key empirical challenge is selection into first jobs based on unobserved worker characteristics. I develop an instrumental variable approach that, keeping business cycle conditions fixed, leverages variation in the composition of labor demand that labor market entrants face. Initially matching with a larger firm persistently improves long-term outcomes, even through subsequent jobs. Mechanisms suggest better skill development at large firms.

This paper proposes a theory of large-scale government bond purchases by central banks in an environment with endogenous information acquisition. Information acquisition by private investors lowers sovereign bond yields by reducing uncertainty, and makes prices more responsive to new information. I show that asset purchases by the central bank discourage information acqui- sition. Using the case of Italian bonds and the start of ECB purchases in 2015, I document through various measures that price informativeness indeed sig- nificantly declined with purchases. When the sovereign can be subject to self- fulfilling debt crises, however, this reduction in information acquisition can be beneficial. I show that by impairing price informativeness, asset purchases can avoid the occurrence of roll-over crises, generating large welfare gains. A key property of the model is that substantial purchases may be required, while small interventions have ambiguous welfare consequences. When the sovereign expects the central bank to carry such programs, it leads to exces- sive indebtedness, forcing the central bank to run an inflated balance sheet to avoid roll-over crises.

This article summarizes empirical research on the interaction between monetarypolicy and asset markets, and reviews our previous theoretical work that capturesthese interactions. We present a concise model in which monetary policy impactsthe aggregate asset price, which in turn ináuences economic activity with lags. Inthis context: (i) the central bank (the Fed, for short) stabilizes the aggregate assetprice in response to Önancial shocks, using large-scale asset purchases if needed(ìthe Fed putî); (ii) when the Fed is constrained, negative Önancial shocks causedemand recessions, (iii) the Fedís response to aggregate demand shocks increasesasset price volatility, but this volatility plays a useful macroeconomic stabilizationrole; (iv) the Fedís beliefs about the future aggregate demand and supply drivethe aggregate asset price; (v) macroeconomic news ináuences the Fedís beliefs andasset prices; (vi) more precise news reduces output volatility but heightens assetmarket volatility; (vii) disagreements between the market and the Fed microfoundmonetary policy shocks, and generate a policy risk premium.

The Chicago Fire is a Major League Soccer (MLS) team acquired by Andell Holdings, an investment firm led by Andrew Hauptman. Purchased for $35 million in 2007, the Fire experienced significant struggles with its home venue, Toyota Park in Bridgeview Illinois, due to poor public transport access and suboptimal maintenance. Despite growing league fortunes and increased sponsorships, the team’s location in suburban Bridgeview posed a significant strain on the popularity of the club.

To effectuate its expansion plans and address these challenges, Andell Holdings must make two critical decisions regarding its ownership of the Chicago Fire. First, Hauptman needs to evaluate the financial and operational ramifications of relocating the team to Soldier Field in downtown Chicago despite the large payments the village of Bridgeview was demanding to break the team’s long-term lease on Toyota Park. This decision hinges on calculating the required increase in attendance to offset the financial burden and considering other non-economic benefits such as brand visibility and fan engagement. Second, Hauptman must determine the optimal timing and strategy for Andell’s exit from Fire ownership. The sale of Andell’s stake required assessing when the team’s valuation would peak and the impact of any decisions regarding the team’s home venue. 

Health centers are vital primary care safety nets for underserved populations, but optimal clinician staffing associated with quality care is unclear. Understanding the association of clinician staffing patterns with quality of care may inform care delivery, scope-of-practice policy, and resource allocation.

When consumers encounter unfamiliar products, they often face difficulty in understanding
which attributes are crucial, leading to challenges in product comparison and potential di-
minished interest in the category. This study examines how firms strategically communicate
the importance of product attributes in a competitive environment. Despite consumer aware-
ness of attributes and their levels, ambiguity regarding their relative importance remains.
We analyze a situation where two firms each receive a noisy signal about the true attribute
importance and convey this information to consumers through cheap-talk messages. Follow-
ing these communications, consumers decide whether to incur a cost to further explore the
category by visiting stores. Our findings reveal a truthful equilibrium where firms honestly
report their received signals. In this equilibrium, when both firms’ messages align, their
collective messages can credibly convey information about the more important attribute,
thereby encouraging store visits and purchase. Interestingly, firms may still find it advan-
tageous to truthfully highlight an attribute, even if it doesn’t align with their competitive
advantage. Moreover, we show that without competition (i.e., a single firm communicating),
this truthful equilibrium does not exist. Thus, the presence of the competition enables the
credible communication of information about attribute importance, benefiting both firms
by enhancing consumer engagement with the product category

We study regressions with multiple treatments and a set of controls that is flexible enough to purge omitted variable bias. We show that these regressions generally fail to estimate convex averages of heterogeneous treatment effects—instead, estimates of each treatment’s effect are contaminated by non-convex averages of the effects of other treatments. We discuss three estimation approaches that avoid such contamination bias, including the targeting of easiest-to-estimate weighted average effects. A re-analysis of nine empirical applications finds economically and statistically meaningful contamina- tion bias in observational studies; contamination bias in experimental studies is more limited due to idiosyncratic effect heterogeneity

This paper examines the current state of social innovation and entrepreneurship programming, courses, and centers within schools of public health through a survey data analysis. This report presents a cross-sectional survey conducted among faculty members of public health schools in the United States. The survey aims to determine the availability and current state of student-centered programs and courses centered around social innovation and entrepreneurship within schools of public health. Insights were drawn from 19 professionals across 15 schools of public health. Uncertainties surround the sustainability of current programs, with insufficient funding, human resources, and the need to teach more pressing topics identified as the most significant obstacles. Key areas identified as opportunities for growth were faculty engagement, expertise, and funding to expand more structured programming.