Mathletics Super Bowl Prediction
If you like Football or math, this post is for you. As a follow up to Professor Kaplan and my weekly Mathletics NFL rankings, listed below are the final rankings of the 2011 season:League Avg: 22.26 Home Edge: 3.42
| Team | Off Rating | Def Rating | Off-Def |
| New Orleans Saints |
10.66 |
-0.93 |
11.59 |
| Green Bay Packers |
11.47 |
0.04 |
11.43 |
| New England Patriots |
9.18 |
0.07 |
9.11 |
| San Francisco 49ers |
1.51 |
-6.66 |
8.17 |
| Baltimore Ravens |
2.68 |
-3.57 |
6.26 |
| Detroit Lions |
6.87 |
0.75 |
6.12 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers |
-0.70 |
-6.14 |
5.45 |
| Houston Texans |
1.49 |
-3.33 |
4.82 |
| Philadelphia Eagles |
2.93 |
-1.69 |
4.62 |
| Atlanta Falcons |
1.90 |
-1.82 |
3.72 |
| Chicago Bears |
-1.47 |
-3.19 |
1.73 |
| Dallas Cowboys |
0.57 |
-0.95 |
1.52 |
| New York Giants |
2.94 |
1.46 |
1.49 |
| Miami Dolphins |
-2.16 |
-3.22 |
1.06 |
| Seattle Seahawks |
-0.45 |
-1.37 |
0.93 |
| San Diego Chargers |
2.68 |
1.76 |
0.92 |
| New York Jets |
0.96 |
0.21 |
0.75 |
| Cincinnati Bengals |
0.76 |
0.12 |
0.64 |
| Tennessee Titans |
-2.11 |
-1.98 |
-0.13 |
| Carolina Panthers |
2.75 |
3.77 |
-1.02 |
| Arizona Cardinals |
-1.89 |
0.48 |
-2.36 |
| Buffalo Bills |
1.29 |
4.51 |
-3.23 |
| Oakland Raiders |
0.15 |
5.03 |
-4.87 |
| Denver Broncos |
-3.61 |
1.60 |
-5.21 |
| Cleveland Browns |
-7.10 |
-1.88 |
-5.21 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars |
-6.93 |
-1.55 |
-5.38 |
| Minnesota Vikings |
-1.77 |
4.06 |
-5.84 |
| Washington Redskins |
-4.35 |
2.90 |
-7.25 |
| Kansas City Chiefs |
-10.20 |
-2.15 |
-8.05 |
| St. Louis Rams |
-8.28 |
2.04 |
-10.32 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
-3.97 |
6.47 |
-10.44 |
| Indianapolis Colts |
-5.83 |
5.19 |
-11.02 |
Based on these ratings, New Orleans and Green Bay are the NFC favorites while New England is the AFC favorite. To take things a step further, Wayne Winston (the author of our textbook, click on his name for the detailed methodology) used a similar approach to predict the NFL playoffs and the probabilities are listed below:
Based on this, I'm predicting Green Bay to repeat over New England on Super Bowl Sunday. Feel free to leave your thoughts/predictions in the comments section.