Japan Stock Market Confidence Indices

About the Indices

  • Note

    A parallel effort to sample Japanese investor attitudes has been undertaken since 1989 by Professor Yoshiro Tsutsui of Osaka University, Fumiko Kon-Ya of the Japan Securities Research Institute, and Akiko Kamesaka of Aoyama Gakuin University.

Japan One-Year Confidence Index

Date US Institutional Japan Institutional
Index Value Standard Error Index Value Standard Error

How much of a change in percentage terms do you expect in the following (use + before your number to indicate an expected increase, a - to indicate an expected decrease):

in 1 month in 3 months in 6 year in 1 year in 10 years
Nikkei Stock Average ---% ---% ---% ---% ---%

The One-Year Confidence Index is the percentage of respondents giving a number strictly greater than zero for "in 1 year." 

Japan Buy-on-Dips Confidence Index

Date US Institutional Japan Institutional
Index Value Standard Error Index Value Standard Error

If the Nikkei Stock Average dropped 3% tomorrow, I would guess that the day after tomorrow the Nikkei Stock Average would: [Circle 1, 2, 3, or 4]

1. Increase Give percent: ---%
2. Decrease Give percent: ---%
3. Stay the same
4. No opinion

The Buy-On-Dips Confidence Index is the number of respondents who choose 1 (increase) as a percent of those who chose 1, 2 or 3. 

Japan Crash Confidence Index

Date US Institutional Japan Institutional
Index Value Standard Error Index Value Standard Error

What do you think is the probability of a catastrophic stock market crash in Japan, like that of 1929 or October 1987, in the next six months, including the case that a crash occurred in the other countries and spreads to Japan? An answer of 0% means that it cannot happen, an answer of 100% means it is sure to happen. [Fill in one number]

Probability in Japan --%

The Crash Confidence Index is the percentage of respondents who think that the probability is strictly less than 10%

Japan Valuation Confidence Index

Date US Institutional Japan Institutional
Index Value Standard Error Index Value Standard Error

Stock prices in Japan, when compared with measures of true fundamental value or sensible investment value, are: [Circle 1, 2, 3 or 4]

1. Too low
2. Too high
3. About right
4. Do not know

The Valuation Confidence Index is the number of respondents who choose 1 (Too Low) or 3 (About right) as a percentage of those who choose 1, 2, or 3.

All Japanese Indices

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