About the Indices
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Note
A parallel effort to sample Japanese investor attitudes has been undertaken since 1989 by Professor Yoshiro Tsutsui of Osaka University, Fumiko Kon-Ya of the Japan Securities Research Institute, and Akiko Kamesaka of Aoyama Gakuin University.
Date | US Institutional | Japan Institutional | ||
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Index Value | Standard Error | Index Value | Standard Error |
How much of a change in percentage terms do you expect in the following (use + before your number to indicate an expected increase, a - to indicate an expected decrease):
in 1 month | in 3 months | in 6 year | in 1 year | in 10 years | |
Nikkei Stock Average | ---% | ---% | ---% | ---% | ---% |
The One-Year Confidence Index is the percentage of respondents giving a number strictly greater than zero for "in 1 year."
Date | US Institutional | Japan Institutional | ||
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Index Value | Standard Error | Index Value | Standard Error |
If the Nikkei Stock Average dropped 3% tomorrow, I would guess that the day after tomorrow the Nikkei Stock Average would: [Circle 1, 2, 3, or 4]
1. | Increase | Give percent: ---% |
2. | Decrease | Give percent: ---% |
3. | Stay the same | |
4. | No opinion |
The Buy-On-Dips Confidence Index is the number of respondents who choose 1 (increase) as a percent of those who chose 1, 2 or 3.
Date | US Institutional | Japan Institutional | ||
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Index Value | Standard Error | Index Value | Standard Error |
What do you think is the probability of a catastrophic stock market crash in Japan, like that of 1929 or October 1987, in the next six months, including the case that a crash occurred in the other countries and spreads to Japan? An answer of 0% means that it cannot happen, an answer of 100% means it is sure to happen. [Fill in one number]
Probability in Japan | --% |
The Crash Confidence Index is the percentage of respondents who think that the probability is strictly less than 10%
Date | US Institutional | Japan Institutional | ||
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Index Value | Standard Error | Index Value | Standard Error |
Stock prices in Japan, when compared with measures of true fundamental value or sensible investment value, are: [Circle 1, 2, 3 or 4]
1. | Too low |
2. | Too high |
3. | About right |
4. | Do not know |
The Valuation Confidence Index is the number of respondents who choose 1 (Too Low) or 3 (About right) as a percentage of those who choose 1, 2, or 3.
All Japanese Indices
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Yale School of Management Stock Market Confidence Indexes™
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