About the Indices
-
Note
A parallel effort to sample Japanese investor attitudes has been undertaken since 1989 by Professor Yoshiro Tsutsui of Osaka University, Fumiko Kon-Ya of the Japan Securities Research Institute, and Akiko Kamesaka of Aoyama Gakuin University.
| Date | US Institutional | Japan Institutional | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Index Value | Standard Error | Index Value | Standard Error | |
How much of a change in percentage terms do you expect in the following (use + before your number to indicate an expected increase, a - to indicate an expected decrease):
| in 1 month | in 3 months | in 6 year | in 1 year | in 10 years | |
| Nikkei Stock Average | ---% | ---% | ---% | ---% | ---% |
The One-Year Confidence Index is the percentage of respondents giving a number strictly greater than zero for "in 1 year."
| Date | US Institutional | Japan Institutional | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Index Value | Standard Error | Index Value | Standard Error | |
If the Nikkei Stock Average dropped 3% tomorrow, I would guess that the day after tomorrow the Nikkei Stock Average would: [Circle 1, 2, 3, or 4]
| 1. | Increase | Give percent: ---% |
| 2. | Decrease | Give percent: ---% |
| 3. | Stay the same | |
| 4. | No opinion |
The Buy-On-Dips Confidence Index is the number of respondents who choose 1 (increase) as a percent of those who chose 1, 2 or 3.
| Date | US Institutional | Japan Institutional | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Index Value | Standard Error | Index Value | Standard Error | |
What do you think is the probability of a catastrophic stock market crash in Japan, like that of 1929 or October 1987, in the next six months, including the case that a crash occurred in the other countries and spreads to Japan? An answer of 0% means that it cannot happen, an answer of 100% means it is sure to happen. [Fill in one number]
| Probability in Japan | --% |
The Crash Confidence Index is the percentage of respondents who think that the probability is strictly less than 10%
| Date | US Institutional | Japan Institutional | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Index Value | Standard Error | Index Value | Standard Error | |
Stock prices in Japan, when compared with measures of true fundamental value or sensible investment value, are: [Circle 1, 2, 3 or 4]
| 1. | Too low |
| 2. | Too high |
| 3. | About right |
| 4. | Do not know |
The Valuation Confidence Index is the number of respondents who choose 1 (Too Low) or 3 (About right) as a percentage of those who choose 1, 2, or 3.
All Japanese Indices
Terms of Use
-
Permissions and Copyright
Yale School of Management Stock Market Confidence Indexes™
The Yale School of Management Stock Market Confidence Indexes, and related material, is produced and copyrighted by the International Center of Finance at the Yale School of Management, Yale University, unless otherwise noted. The information available on our site may not be reproduced or distributed without written permission from the International Center for Finance at the Yale School of Management. If you would like to request permission to publish any of the material on this site, please send your request to Milad.Nozari@yale.edu.Your request should include a complete citation of the material you would like to publish, or the additional data you wish to obtain. We only permit summaries of the material to be published, and not the raw data and related material itself.