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Japan Stock Market Confidence Indices

Note

A parallel effort to sample Japanese investor attitudes has been undertaken since 1989 by Professor Yoshiro Tsutsui of Osaka University, Fumiko Kon-Ya of the Japan Securities Research Institute, and Akiko Kamesaka of Aoyama Gakuin University.

Japan One-Year Confidence Index

Question & Calculation:

Question:
How much of a change in percentage terms do you expect in the following (use + before your number to indicate an expected increase, a - to indicate an expected decrease)

  • in 1 month
  • in 3 months
  • in 6 year
  • in 1 year
  • in 10 years

Calculation:
The One-Year Confidence Index is the percentage of respondents giving a number strictly greater than zero for "in 1 year."

Japan Buy-on-Dips Confidence Index

Question & Calculation:

Question:
If the Nikkei Stock Average dropped 3% tomorrow, I would guess that the day after tomorrow the Nikkei Stock Average would: [Circle 1, 2, 3, or 4]

  1. Increase    Give percent: ---%
  2. Decrease    Give percent: ---%
  3. Stay the same    
  4. No opinion

Calculation:
The Buy-On-Dips Confidence Index is the number of respondents who choose 1 (increase) as a percent of those who chose 1, 2 or 3.

Japan Crash Confidence Index

Question & Calculation

Question:
What do you think is the probability of a catastrophic stock market crash in Japan, like that of 1929 or October 1987, in the next six months, including the case that a crash occurred in the other countries and spreads to Japan? An answer of 0% means that it cannot happen, an answer of 100% means it is sure to happen.

Calculation:
The Crash Confidence Index is the percentage of respondents who think that the probability is strictly less than 10%.

Japan Valuation Confidence Index

Question & Calculation:

Question:
Stock prices in Japan, when compared with measures of true fundamental value or sensible investment value, are: [Circle 1, 2, 3 or 4]

  1. Too low
  2. Too high
  3. About right
  4. Do not know

Calculation:
The Valuation Confidence Index is the number of respondents who choose 1 (Too Low) or 3 (About right) as a percentage of those who choose 1, 2, or 3.

All Japanese Indices

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Yale School of Management Stock Market Confidence Indexes™

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