Interesting Trends In Yale Investor Confidence Surveys

From Seeking Alpha

Two of the most widely followed stock market sentiment indicators come from Investors Intelligence and the American Association of Individual Investors. The Yale "Stock Market Confidence" indices are much lesser known, but they provide key insights into investor sentiment trends nonetheless.

The Yale School of Management has been surveying both individual and institutional investors for nearly two decades now, and below we provide historical charts that track the four survey questions they ask investors each month.

The first survey highlighted below is Yale's "one-year confidence" reading, which asks investors if they think the stock market will be up one year from now. As shown, for institutional investors, this reading had been trending lower for years now, but we've recently seen a massive spike in expectations. At the same time, sentiment on the part of individuals has only seen a minor pickup. In this regards, it appears that institutional investors have turned significantly more bullish since the election while individual investors simply aren't sold.

The second survey question asks investors how confident they are that the market will rise the day after a sharp fall. Yale calls it the "Buy on Dips" measure. Similar to the "One-Year Confidence" reading, we've seen a big divergence between institutional and individual investors for the "Buy on Dips" measure. Institutional investors have gotten very confident to buy on dips while the reading for individual investors just recently hit new lows.